Costa Rica NO DEBERIA jugar la #CopadeOro

Ni en esta ocasión ni nunca más.

 

Hace dos años escribí sobre las carencias del torneo de CONCACAF que se juega cada dos años denominado “Gold Cup” (su nombre original en inglés, porque es un torneo gringo).

En ese momento discutí tres temas principales:

1) QUE EL TORNEO SE JUEGA EN JULIO (los torneos competitivos se juegan en Junio, incluido el Mundial y EuroCopa y la razón es PRETEMPORADA);

2) QUE LOS PREMIOS SON RISIBLES (Un millón de dólares para el equipo ganador y medio millón para el segundo lugar) y

3) QUE SIEMPRE SE JUEGA EN ESTADOS UNIDOS (el único torneo regional con ese formato, dando a México y Estados Unidos el eterno factor de local).

Fallé sin embargo visualizar en ese momento la importancia que tenía el torneo para los intereses económicos de México, puesto que el mismo servía de clasificatoria directa para la Copa de Confederaciones del 2017, la cual se acaba de jugar.

 

Es ahora evidente el interés económico que tenía el torneo.

La cantidad de divisas que genera la competencia intercontinental en el mercado Mexicano es incalculable.

De haber llegado Costa Rica (o Panamá que a lo mejor tenía mejor chance)  el espectador Mexicano hubiese preferido obviar el torneo, puesto que si algo sé del mexicano promedio es que detesta ver a otra selección del área participando en torneos internacionales.

“Futbol Picante”, “Los Capitanes” y demás programas de ESPN y Televisa hubiesen pasado a cubrir la pretemporada de los equipos locales antes de darle cobertura a otra selección en suelo Ruso. Los partidos se hubiesen transmitido, especialmente los de grandes equipos europeos, pero la venta de espacios publicitarios hubiese caído al 90% en relación a lo que se venden cuando juega México.

 

Entiéndase que la Copa Confederaciones se vive como otro mundial.

Con la corrupción comprobada que hay en CONCACAF no hacen falta dos dedos de frente para entender que la Copa de Oro no es más que un teatro construido para los intereses de los equipos de mayor poder económico.

No discuto que México puede ganar torneos regionales sin ayuda de fallos arbitrales, o que Estados Unidos no tenga el cartel para competir a nivel de la Copa Confederaciones, pero discuto que la sucesión de errores que llevaron a México a la Copa Confederaciones –en un momento en que México pasaba por un mal momento, de cuarto en la tabla  de la Hexagonal – pueden fácilmente ser explicados desde el punto de vista monetario.

El mismo Jurgen Klinsmann vociferó cuando fue despedido como seleccionador de los Estados Unidos que desde su perspectiva el torneo había sido arreglado para que México ganara.

 

Después de saber los amaños comprobados en la Calcio y que hasta terminaron sacando a la Juve de Serie A, ¿Porque deberíamos pensar que tal asunto es imposible en nuestra área que ya de por sí es corrupta? – Léase caso del Chino Li.

¿Cuánto más va a soportar Costa Rica este abuso? ¿Quién va a ser el federativo que se levante y diga “Así no jugamos más”?

 

Por supuesto, como esta edición de la copa no clasifica a la Confederaciones a nadie le importa.

Solo Costa Rica lleva su equipo “A” (que no incluye jugadores de renombre porque nuevamente el torneo se juega en JULIO y no en JUNIO como debería de ser).

 

Pero esperemos en dos años cuando el puesto para Qatar se rife.

Entiendo que se está conversando crear una especie  de “final” entre los ganadores de las dos copas anteriores a la Confederaciones para ver que equipo va en representación del área (en lugar de pase directo), sin embargo es evidente que la selección que gane el torneo anterior al certamen (el del 2019) va a tener mejor capacidad de afrontar esa final que el equipo que lo ganó dos años atrás.

¿Para qué jugamos esta Copa? pregunto yo. Y cuándo nos van a devolver el torneo CONCACAF Championship? Ese que ganamos tres veces, siendo Costa Rica el último campeón antes de ser cancelado para meter el invento de Copa de Oro en 1991 – bajo pretexto de probar los estadios gringos antes del Mundial del 94.

 

Los “Cara Sucia” se coronaron campeones del area en 1989, venciendo a El Salvador 1-0 en el Estadio Nacional.

Desgraciadamente no creo que el formato vaya a cambiar. Al final, ¿para qué complicarse?

Mejor sigamos con el torneo menos competitivo del mundo, armado para los intereses de México y Estados Unidos y sigamos llenando el vacío deportivo del verano gringo.

Que de todas formas al resto del mundo, no le importa.

 

 

Por qué Navas y no Ochoa al Real Madrid?

El costarricense Keylor Navas acaba de firmar un contrato de 6 años con el Real Madrid CF por 10 millones de Euros. Ante este fichaje, se ha planteado la inquietud -en la mente de muchos aficionados y otros llamados periodistas deportivos – de por que razón el arquero mexicano Guillermo Memo Ochoa no fue llamado a formar partes del club merengue, y fuera sin embargo contratado (y no fichado ya que era agente libre) por el club español Málaga.

Para los que han seguido la carrera del costarricense la contratación no es sorpresa, ni fue decidida por un mundial afortunado. El Real Madrid ha seguido a Keylor desde la segunda mitad de la campaña anterior debido a sus excepcionales habilidades las cuales fueron puestas a prueba por los mismos jugadores del Real Madrid en varias ocasiones.

Alguna parte de la prensa mexicana sin embargo, cegada un poco por la misma ceguera que les hace sentirse superiores a Estados Unidos (quien los dejo eliminados en octavos de final en el 2010 y han tenido mejores campañas eliminatorias que Mexico en los últimos tres mundiales), han tenido que preguntarse porque su compatriota Memo Ochoa no fue buscado por el club catalán.

He aquí entonces para aquellos ajenos a la carrera de ambos porteros un  resumen:

 

Memo Ochoa

Títulos y Galardones

– 2005: Torneo de Apertura (America de Mexico)

– 2006: Copa Campeones Concacaf (America de Mexico)

– 2009: Copa de Oro Concacaf (México)

 

 

Récord y Estadísticas

– Según http://90minutes.fr/ uno de los PEORES porteros en la liga francesa 2013-2014

 

Participación en Mundial 2014

Porcentaje de Atajadas: 76.4%

 

Keylor Navas 

Títulos y Galardones

– 2005: Copa Campeones Concacaf (Deportivo Saprissa)

– 11 Torneos Cortos Primera Division entre 2006-2011 (Deportivo Saprissa)

 

Récord y Estadísticas

– Mejor Portero BBVA 2014

http://www.ligabbva.com/2544_liga-bbva/2551225_keylor-navas-termina-la-temporada-como-mejor-portero-de-la-liga-bbva.html

– Elegido entre los mejores 22 jugadores Mundial 2014 por EA Sports

http://www.easports.com/fifa/news-updates-gameplay/article/fifa-14-ultimate-team-team-of-the-tournament

– Nominado al Guante de Oro Mundial 2014

 

Participación en Mundial 2014

Porcentaje de Atajadas: 91.3%

 

Asi pareciera que no hay debate entre quien es mejor portero. Mas alla aun, existen entre Keylor Navas y Memo Ochoa un sinnumero de porteros que hubiesen sido contratados antes que Ochoa, entre ellos todos los que jugaron un mejor mundial y tienen mejor desempeno en liga (por ejemplo Tim Howard de Estados Unidos).

Estoy abierto al debate si asi lo deseas, deja tus comentarios!

 

 

The Golden-Eggs Goose is Getting Drained

Anyone pretty much knows that Costa Rica is well known for being the leader in the tourism industry among the central american countries and also among many of the other strong participants in Latin America (such as Brazil and Mexico).  Costa Rica, surrounded by two oceans, beautiful volcanoes, tropical-rain forests and conserved lands has  attracted the attention of visitors for the past two decades and it does not seem to stop in the near future.

Something about the “vibe” of Costa Rica appeals to visitors and is capable enough to get within the plot of  many many movie and TV scripts, where characters come or go to Costa Rica (free advertising for the Costa Rica tourism agency).  For example, Gil Grissom (CSI Las Vegas) goes to Costa Rica to meet his love Sara Sidle after retiring from work. In Modern Family, Greg Kinnear has a guest appearance where his character is in love with Costa Rica.  Also, don´t forget Jurassic Park (1993) was supposed to be located here! (yes, we were “the” Jurassic Park!). Many Americans know Costa Rica just for what they´ve heard and seen on those TV shows and movies and no one can argue that has not helped the country to maintain its source of visitors across the years.

By 2012 Costa Rica received more tourists than ever before reaching at 2.34 million (a lot for nation with about 4 million people and only 19,653 sq miles).  That´s remarkable considering the slow recovery of the economies that are key supplier of tourists, like United States and Europe (situation that by 2010 caused a decreased in the amount of visitors to the country of -7.97%.). In general terms  however, the amount of visitors that get into the country has been steadily increasing since 1988; reaching  to new highs every upcoming year.

The effect that the industry has had in the economy is more than important. Since 1995 Costa Rica´s  largest source for foreign exchange has been the tourism industry while at least 8% of the country ´s GDP  is merely product of tourism. That 8% does not account for the indirect effect that tourism has in other industries, such as private healthcare, construction, education, etc…  By year 2005 the industry was the direct employer of 14% of the population (again without considering informal jobs) and has made the industry of hosting and restaurants the fastest growing industry since mid 90´s.

 

Number of Visitors 1988-2012

 So what can go wrong when it all seems to be alright?

There are many underneath issues behind all this data. One fundamental problem is that the number of “visitors” does not exactly translate into the number of actual tourists. Anyone who crosses the boarder (by air, land or sea) is considered a “visitor”. This includes truck drivers (the ones that transport goods from country to country and many times do not spend more than 12 hours in Costa Rica), fishermen and sailors, illegal immigrants (people that claim to be a tourist but then stay in the country) and people involved in illegal activities such as prostitution, drug traffic, etc… It is believed that up to 40% of all visitors are not actual tourists . Therefore while the number of visitors may continue to increase, it is unknown to what

Arenal Volcano, San Carlos, Costa Rica

point the actual tourists are. One way to determine the behaviour of the industry is by assessing the occupation level at the hotels. The Costa Rican Tourism Board uses this metric to measure the activity levels of the hotels that are part of the board.

By crunching these two metrics (the number of visitors against the activity index of the hotel industry) it is clearl how the number´s don´t match.  While on 2004 there was a year-to-year increase of 14% on the number of visitors, there was only a 2% increase in hotel activity. Similar results on 2003 where there was an increase in the number of visitors of 13% and only an increase of 3% on the occupancy levels. Considering that most of the tourists choose brand-name hotels (part of a hotel chain like Hilton and Marriot) the cut for the small business owners is low. This is extremely important since many of these small hotels are placed in areas that are not the usual holiday location (such as beaches and national parks) but in rural areas near small towns (many of them focused in “ecotourism”). These small places usually have a direct effect on the local economy as they employ local people that would otherwise have no jobs.  On the other hand, many brand-named hotels bring employees from other countries to support their operation as they require a certain level of skill that is difficult to be found  at low cost.

The decrease on visitors in these hotels has caused for many to close their doors. From 2007 to 2012 the number of hotels decreased by -3.7% while the number of rooms increased in 10%. This is possible considering that while small hotels were shutting down operations, the brand-name hotels built more rooms and facilities.

By 2012 Costa Rica received more tourists than ever before reaching at 2.34 million

One other real problem that the Costa Rica tourism industry has been facing since 2010 has been an “abnormal” valuation of the costarrican currency against US dollar. Since the Central Bank chose to eliminate the fixed exchange rate in 2009, the local currency has gained value to sit at about 500 colones per dolar (the lowest “allowed” exchange rate the government has set). This means that hotel owners (accustom to charge in dollars) are receiving less colones every time, and as they compete with destinations across the world, raising prices (or convert those to colones)  is not an option.

US Dolar /Costarrican Colones Exchange Rate

Lastly but not least, Costa Rica may suffer from over-exploitation and to be out-fashioned soon. In the past two decades the baby-boomers have fed the economy by taking their families to our country  and by choosing our tropical paradise as their detestation for retirement. While there is still a lot of vibe and momentum, the twenty-somethings out there may start looking Costa Rica as “too-well known” destination, and may start looking somewhere else (Nicaragua and Belize have beautiful beaches at more affordable prices).  In order to avoid that to happen, the government needs to continue investing in bringing actual tourists to the country while working in mechanisms to allow small business owners stay a float (I do not back up the idea of artificially decreasing the value of the local currency to help those business owners!). In a few years, those small hotels and places are the ones that would save the economy as the hotel industry continues its transformation to a less standardized system (a world where not all hotel-rooms look the same).

If Costa Rica fails on keeping its appeal to tourists, the effect that a decrease on the number of visitors, tourists and cashflow to Costa Rica would bring the following three effects:

1. Depreciation of the Colon against the dollar (by a decrease in dollar supply product of the tourists) that would increase gas prices and with that…pretty much every other good and service.

2. Deceleration of the economy, bringing unemployment (specially in the lowest paid workers).

3. An obvious decrease in tax income (product of business making less money and visitors paying less taxes) that would definitely not help our already critical fiscal def.

By all these reasons the Government  business owners and people need to continue taking care of the “Golden-Eggs Goose”, by changing the approach to the industry. For one hand the gov has to ensure safety for all the visitors, clean streets and proper infrastructure, while maintaining tax levels to a minimum. High tax levels raise the prices of the rooms and services and (as stated before) we compete on a very competitive world!

Costa Rica in 2012; what comes for 2013?

Costa Rica ended up 2012 with a positive economic balance, or at least that´s what seems in the surface.

In terms of economic growth Costa Rica achieved an inter-annual GDP growth rate of 5.71% which seems positive if we compare these results with the ones obtained by other “developing countries” of the area such as Colombia (2.10%), Paraguay (1.05%), Mexico (0.66%) and Argentina (0.93%).  It is extremely positive if the results are compared to developed countries (US with 2.6% , Germany 0.4%, Japan  0.5% and the Euro Zone with -0.6%).

 

However; before being too positive with these results,   it´s important to understand that Costa Rica is below in terms of economic growth when compared to other countries of the area such as Panama (9.55%) and Peru (6.5%) at the same time that sits very close to other nations such as Venezuela (5.2%), Chile (5.7%) and Ecuador (5.2%).

Although it is understood that the GDP growth rate is not a clear indicator of the real development of the economies (and comparison between countries is a very risky exercise to perform as many countries follow different rules to calculate their GDP), it provides an idea on where Costa Rica sits in terms of economic growth.  One other component to consider in order to have a clearer picture of the economy´s behavior is the inflation rate (Consumer Price Index), which would explain an increase on GDP when the prices raise.

In that area Costa Rica continues to show an steady behavior with a 4.55% inter-annual inflation rate which stays below the 5% mark that the Central Bank established by the end of 2010. This metric not only shows a positive trend (being 2012 the fourth year in a row with an inflation rate below 10%) but a sign of control over prices from the local government, as well as over supply and demand.

If we compare the results with the countries mentioned before, Costa Rica seems to have a similar behavior as other countries in the area: while Peru sits at 4.5%, Chile obtains 3.3%,  on the other hand Panama reached 5.9% and Ecuador obtained 4.5% (all results of 2011). Only Venezuela shows lack of control over inflation with 26% while Argentina continues to show problems in this area as unofficial reports indicate inflation of over 25% for 2012.

 

One last item to consider when we look at 2012 is the unemployment rate. In 2012 this index showed an increase of 0.11% sitting at 7.7%. The main reason continues to be the slow recovery from the 2008-2009 crisis that hit heavily on the construction and tourism industries (two of the major components of Costa Rica´s employment force).  Although there is an increase in this metric, it seems the behavior is natural and controlled and does not show signs of being problematic.

With all this data, it seems after all that Costa Rica (with all the problems that were advertised and broadcast in the media during 2012), follows an slow but steady development  that allows most citizens to have a positive and plenty life style. While poverty continues to be a problem for the government  (with 20% of the country below the poverty line), the current administration has been able to contained this by reducing in 1% the index in year 2012.

It is obvious that many areas are not portrait by the figures and indexes showed here, such as real development in infrastructure, educational growth, life expectancy and public health; areas that many times are not addressed properly in lieu of achieving more visible and public results; however in general terms we can´t complain of the results obtained in 2012 in times of world crisis and disconcert.

 What comes for 2013? 

This year seems to be less troublesome for the current administration. There are a couple of factors for that; one being that the government enters its “final year” (while the mandate ends on May 2014 the elections during February 2014 will create an ambiance of out-focus of the current government since late 2013 )making it less problematic not to take actions to address long-term issues, such as fiscal deficit. In other words the government will sit and wait while the mob starts chewing on who´s to come next and “fix the country”.  A second reason on why 2013 seems brighter is the recovery of the US economy bringing more demand of CR products and services including tourism, which was heavily hit during 2009 and 2010 as a result of the house-market crisis in that country. The minimum increase in the amount of tourists from US and Canada will boost the local economy in a very direct fashion.

In terms of metrics and indicators, it seems that interest rates, GDP growth, US dollar exchange rate and unemployment rates will continue to show their steady behavior in 2013 without major changes. While this may seem favorable for big corporations to invest in the country, it will not aid to smaller companies and families that need faster growth in order to be successful. In addition, if the government continues to put pressure on tax collection, many small and mid size companies will close their doors and /or will show slower growth this year than they did in 2012.

Although Costa Rica could be much better (specially in terms of direct investment on infrastructure  and education), it is clear the government made a hit on managing what can be managed of our small-blessed land.